Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 9.123761 10.477801 11.936311 13.620795 15.509139 17.557167 19.942847
2025-12-21 6.709855 8.447592 10.468506 12.979082 15.999914 19.502479 23.854720
2025-12-28 5.877075 7.841376 10.237865 13.351446 17.261491 21.978647 28.066104
2026-01-04 5.171794 7.275182 9.954943 13.578697 18.304345 24.206306 32.075619
2026-01-11 4.513057 6.658315 9.499358 13.479621 18.844366 25.748532 35.216003
2026-01-18 3.963860 6.114885 9.068085 13.342585 19.280021 27.131304 38.171935
2026-01-25 3.554039 5.713380 8.777718 13.346598 19.867620 28.702402 41.406988
2026-02-01 3.236830 5.408061 8.585582 13.454634 20.578935 30.446218 44.924982
2026-02-08 2.912275 5.054133 8.284559 13.367994 20.986297 31.762900 47.882865
2026-02-15 2.622452 4.722323 7.983046 13.246661 21.317029 32.963475 50.702628
2026-02-22 2.413800 4.498943 7.825539 13.323133 21.930091 34.578701 54.162369
2026-03-01 2.291184 4.405769 7.862573 13.696794 23.002082 36.898721 58.727418
2026-03-08 2.065177 4.116276 7.564121 13.524018 23.231373 37.992870 61.557324
2026-03-15 1.789215 3.709050 7.035657 12.936369 22.766131 38.004625 62.750666
2026-03-22 1.703158 3.639739 7.074762 13.289408 23.820977 40.387296 67.638939
2026-03-29 1.605285 3.537685 7.046852 13.522319 24.684356 42.497692 72.175810
2026-04-05 1.467418 3.343184 6.836810 13.421278 24.978656 43.706927 75.330769
2026-04-12 1.338539 3.152629 6.617499 13.285579 25.199905 44.797301 78.323987
2026-04-19 1.239866 3.013466 6.482175 13.289286 25.655048 46.278377 81.988040
2026-04-26 1.162344 2.910718 6.407541 13.397021 26.292285 48.077763 86.224268
2026-05-03 1.069595 2.764770 6.236385 13.310668 26.575446 49.287950 89.522141
2026-05-10 0.981595 2.619589 6.054527 13.189803 26.785209 50.373936 92.639846
2026-05-17 0.920729 2.529906 5.977946 13.265984 27.354408 52.090374 96.866276